AFC Preview

Okay, so I’m cheating a little. I had hoped to have this up before week 1. Unfortunately, real life has a way of intervening sometimes. Okay, that’s a lie; I could have done this Saturday, but opted to sit on my butt and watch college football all day instead. Like you wouldn’t have done the same thing.

Anyway, I didn’t make any big changes, except for one division. Apart from the AFC West, everything is where I originally predicted it.

As for the AFC East, I tried hard. I really did. But in the end, I couldn’t do it. I couldn’t pick the Phins to knock off the Patriots. Not this year, not even with the Patriots so decimated at receiver that Irving Fryar, Hart Lee Dykes, Ben Jacobs and Scott Rollins are getting tryouts.

But believe me, no one hopes I’m wrong more than I do.

AFC East
Predicted record and order of finish:
1. New England (12-4), 2. Miami (11-5), 3. Buffalo (6-10), 4. New York Jets (5-11).

New England Patriots
What I Like: The Patriots could surround Tom Brady with 10 underclassmen from Northeastern, Tufts and UNH, and Bill Belichick could still coach them to no worse than 8 wins. And yes, it hurts me to dispense that sort of praise, but three Super Bowls in five years commands tremendous respect. The defense remains one of the NFL’s best, particularly in the front seven. The depth in that unit is impressive. The Pats should run the ball extremely well this year between Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney, and if their wide receivers are weak, they do have plenty of good targets at tight end.

What I Don’t Like: They need Deion Branch back, and soon. Even if Branch wants more than he’s worth, the passing game will struggle without him. Also, the defense is getting on in years, and it seems the Patriots keep plugging holes with old-timers like Junior Seau. At some point, that’s going to cease being effective. I’m still not wild about their corners, though they do have talent.

Outlook: It hurt me to do it, but in the end, I asked myself, “if my life depended on getting it right, who would I pick to win the division?” The answer, sadly, has to be New England. The Patriots are plenty good enough to challenge for another AFC title.

Miami Dolphins
What I Like: His fourth quarter jitters in the opener notwithstanding, Daunte Culpepper should lead an explosive offense. Chris Chambers is on the cusp of being an elite wide receiver, and Ronnie Brown should become a top running back this year. Randy McMichael remains one of the best receiving tight ends in the business. On defense, no team is deeper on the defensive line than Miami, and the Phins should rush the passer extremely well. Even if Jason Taylor is blocked effectively, there are simply too many guys who can get to the QB. Zach Thomas and Channing Crowder are both excellent linebackers, and the corners, assuming Travis Daniels is healthy, are in good shape.

What I Don’t Like: The season opener exposed Miami’s two big weaknesses for all the world to see: interior run blocking and safety help in the passing game. The guards and center simply are not that talented, and Hudson Houck will have a major task on his hands to make the interior run blocking even adequate (the pass blocking is already fairly good). While the corners seem pretty good, the safeties were a disaster; the combination of a holdout and injuries have hindered the development of Jason Allen. If Allen doesn’t improve, and fast, the Phins will get beaten deep a fair amount.

Outlook: The Dolphins have the talent to win the division, if enough things go right. But right now, they look like an “almost but not quite” team: good enough to beat the weak to mediocre teams on the schedule, but not enough to win the big games, particularly those on the road. They should make the playoffs, however.

Buffalo Bills
What I Like: The Bills have a decent defense, with some star talent (i.e. Takeo Spikes, London Fletcher, Nate Clements). Couple that with RB Willis McGahee, and teams have won with less. WR Lee Evans is a burner who can stretch the field.

What I Don’t Like: The offensive line, as ever, remains a problem. And we might never find out Evans’ ceiling until the Bills get a real QB. JP Losman seems not to be the answer, and this will probably be his make or break year. The Bills really needed a run-stuffing defensive tackle, and I’m not sure drafting John McCargo was the answer. More than anything, I’m not wild about the direction of this team: a retread coach and an ancient GM whose first draft was not distinguished.

Outlook: Cheer up, Bills fans; hockey season starts soon. At least that should be good.

New York Jets
What I Like: The linebackers, led by Jon Vilma, are quality, and only getting better. Eric Mangini seems, at least early on, to know what he’s doing, and in any event, the team needed a change in coaching. I also like the overhaul on the offensive line, which will be good sooner than later. The secondary isn’t bad either. I realize that’s not a ringing endorsement, but the pickings are slim on this team.

What I Don’t Like: The Jets stink at the skill positions; Kevan Barlow, Laveranues Coles and Door #2 at wide receiver? Ugh. In 2003, that would be an impressive collection of talent, but the bloom has fallen off those roses. Chad Pennington is an injury waiting to happen, which may not be a terrible thing, given his noodle arm. The loss of John Abraham hurts a defensive line that wasn’t great at rushing the passer to begin with. If Dewayne Robertson doesn’t finally step up then Vilma’s going to be exhausted from having to make about 200 tackles.

Outlook: The Jets seem headed in the right direction, but it will be at least a year and probably more before they’re ready to contend in the AFC East.

AFC North
Predicted record and order of finish:
1. Pittsburgh (12-4), 2. Cincinnati (10-6), 3. Baltimore (9-7), 4. Cleveland (7-9).

Pittsburgh Steelers
What I Like: Having the best defense in the NFL (yes, better than Chicago) goes a long way in my book. The Steelers simply have no weaknesses on defense; every single player is at least league-average, and most are better. Hines Ward is an excellent wide receiver, and is outstanding in pressure situations. Willie Parker looks like the real deal, and TE Heath Miller might well be the #2 receiving target that they need in the absence of Antwaan Randle-El. Finally, the Steelers are in good shape at QB, even with Roethlisberger’s health in question.

What I Don’t Like: Defending Super Bowl champions tend not to have lots of problems. I’m not too wild about their receivers after Ward, and I’m still unsure whether Parker will hold up for an entire season. But there’s not much to complain about, though the situation with Bill Cowher possibly leaving after the season could become a distraction.

Outlook: If they’re not the AFC’s best team, they’re darn close.

Cincinnati Bengals
What I Like: There may not be a team in the league with a more impressive offense, now that the Colts have lost Edgerrin James. Carson Palmer looks fully recovered from his knee injury, and their talent at the skill positions is outstanding. The offensive line is among the top 5 in the NFL with three potential Pro Bowlers: Levi Jones, Eric Steinbach and Willie Anderson. The defense has a high talent level, and the team is well-coached.

What I Don’t Like: WAY too many headcases. Enough has been written about this, so I won’t bore you, but teams with that many problem children frequently underachieve. Despite the talent level, and the presence of defensive mastermind Marvin Lewis, the defense seems to be more about the sum of the parts than the whole.

Outlook: There’s a compelling argument to be made for the Bengals, but for now, I’ll put them behind the Steelers, and slot them into a wild card spot.

Baltimore Ravens
What I Like: For a few years, this team was a decent QB away from making some noise. Well, now they have Steve McNair. Granted, he’s over-the-hill at this point, but still, I’d take McNair on one leg over Kyle Boller. Jamal Lewis looks to be in good shape; he ran very well against a super-tough Tampa Bay defense in week 1. RB depth is a strength, and McNair will have a couple good weapons in Derrick Mason and Todd Heap. The defense, as ever, is pretty strong top to bottom, especially in the back 7.

What I Don’t Like: The offensive line has been sliding for a few years, and at this point, it’s a declining (if still excellent) Jon Ogden and four below-average guys. With an injury-prone QB and RB, that’s an issue. The defensive line lacks its usual stoutness, unless Haloti Ngata comes along quickly. Ray Lewis lacks his old quickness and will need guys taking on blockers in front of him more than ever. Finally, Brian Billick is very much on the hot seat, and with one losing streak, his job security will become an issue.

Outlook: In the NFC, the Ravens could probably challenge for a wild card, but there are just too many teams that are better in this conference.

Cleveland Browns
What I Like: Romeo Crennel seems to know what he’s doing, and the defense is coming along pretty well, especially the front seven. There are few standouts, but things are definitely progressing. The Browns are in better shape than one might think at the skill positions; you could do worse than Reuben Droughns, Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius, Dennis Northcutt and Kellen Winslow II.

What I Don’t Like: I think they’re a little too in love with Charlie Frye, personally, even if it’s commendable that they’re actually giving a young QB a chance to succeed. The offensive line stinks, and the secondary still has a long way to go. Even if Droughns is a decent RB, he’s nowhere near good enough to make up for that line. The signing of Willie McGinest adds leadership to the defense, but his tank’s on E at this point.

Outlook: The Browns aren’t a terrible team, but they’re stuck in a really tough division. Finishing 3rd would be a huge accomplishment, actually.

AFC South
Predicted record and order of finish:
1. Indianapolis (12-4), 2. Jacksonville (9-7), 3. Tennessee (5-11), 4. Houston (4-12).

Indianapolis Colts
What I Like: Peyton Manning and his merry band of wide receivers are as good as it gets in this league. (I love his new Sprint ad, by the way.) The Colts pass-block as well as anyone, and that ensures that Manning stays upright. Tony Dungy is a quality coach who doesn’t deserve his label as a guy who can’t win the big one. The defense has come light-years from the unit Dungy took over. And if they’d had Adam Vinatieri LAST year, they probably win the Super Bowl.

What I Don’t Like: I’m not bullish on their corners, and I don’t think their run defense is quite as good as it looked last year. The run game looks like a real question mark at this point; I’m sure they would have much preferred that either Dominic Rhodes or Joseph Addai had become The Man by now. Finally, whether it’s fair or not, the legacy of playoff catastrophes in the Manning/Dungy Era has got to take some sort of psychological toll.

Outlook: They’re the best team in the division, but are they good enough to finally make the Super Bowl? Anything less will brand the season a failure.

Jacksonville Jaguars
What I Like: Booing by ignorant Jaguar fans aside, Byron Leftwich is a good quarterback. And the Jags have stockpiled a pretty talented collection of receivers and running backs, even if there are few standouts. I like the defense as a unit, and love their defensive tackles. This team is hard to run against, and if you can stop the run, you can win. It’s that simple.

What I Don’t Like: Leftwich is a good, but injury-prone QB, and there’s almost certainly going to be a controversy at some point. While the Jags’ depth at RB and WR is impressive, they don’t yet have a guy they can point to as a go-to man when they need a first down. And the aged, oft-injured Fred Taylor doesn’t count. While the defense is solid as a whole, LB depth is a concern, and their secondary could stand an upgrade. The loss of Reggie Hayward will hurt an already mediocre pass rush.

Outlook: The Jags look just a little bit short, but if a couple things break right, they can make the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans
What I Like: They’ve got some talent at running back: a tandem of Chris Brown and Travis Henry, with LenDale White waiting in the wings, should be effective. And a pass-catching tandem of Drew Bennett, David Givens, late bloomer Bobby Wade and TE Ben Troupe isn’t bad. They’ve got a few good pieces in place on defense, with DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and LB Keith Bulluck. And with Jeff Fisher on the sidelines, they’re at least well-coached.

What I Don’t Like: Apart from Vanden Bosch and Bulluck, the defense is a disaster, especially at DT, where they have no depth whatsoever. The offensive line is inside-out; the interior is pretty good, but the tackles aren’t. At QB, the front office’s insistence on forcing Vince Young into the lineup will disrupt many perfectly good drives.

Outlook: It’s sad to say, but this season may end up costing a good coach his job. The Titans can’t hope for better than third in the division, and with Young a long-term project, the Titans may look to change things up after the year.

Houston Texans
What I Like: I like the steady infusion of talent, especially on defense. The Texans are doing a decent job of adding talent in the place where it can turn a team around quickly. DeMeco Ryans, Mario Williams, and Dunta Robinson will be anchors for what should be a good defense sooner than later.

What I Don’t Like: Williams over Reggie Bush remains an absolutely indefensible decision that made no sense at the time and less now. Williams should be a good player in his own right, but unless he becomes Reggie White, this will haunt the Texans for years to come. Apart from Andre Johnson, there’s not even a mediocre skill position player on the roster. The offensive line remains lousy until conclusively proven otherwise. And even if things are moving in the right direction, the defense still has a long way to go.

Outlook: Maybe they can catch the Titans, but anything more than 6 wins is a pipe dream.

AFC West
Note: I originally swore that I wouldn’t dramatically change my preseason picks based on week one performances. Well, after some of the events of week 1, that seems foolish for this division.
Predicted record and order of finish: 1. San Diego (10-6), 2. Denver (9-7), 3. Kansas City (7-9), 4. Oakland (6-10).

San Diego Chargers
What I Like: LaDainian Tomlinson and a very good defense. It’s not a traditional recipe for success in the wide-open AFC West, but it’ll work. The offensive line is in decent shape, and Philip Rivers should at least be just good enough to keep the defense from stacking 8 in the box against Tomlinson. As long as he knows where Antonio Gates is on the field, the kid will be okay. The front seven on defense is among the very best in the NFL.

What I Don’t Like: We’ll see how Rivers plays; he should be at least respectable, but he’s a definite unknown at this point. The wide receivers are, to say the least, uninspiring. Maybe second year pro Vincent Jackson can step up, but a tandem of Keenan McCardell and Eric Parker scares no one. And as awesome as the front seven is, the secondary is still an area for concern. Finally, there’s the assurance that somehow, some way, Marty Schottenheimer will honk a big game.

Outlook: Best team in a very flawed division.

Denver Broncos
What I Like: As ever with the Broncos, their offensive line and running game (for whomever the Bell tolls) should be good. And their talent at wide receiver is still excellent; Rod Smith can still get it done, and Javon Walker is plenty good. The defense is pretty good, and features some imaginative scheming; for example, I like the idea of using Elvis Dumervil as an undersized DT pass rusher. The linebackers, led by Al Wilson, are excellent, and CBs Darrent Williams and Domonique Foxworth have progressed much faster than expected, meaning that throwing away from Champ Bailey is no longer a winning strategy.

What I Don’t Like: Jake Flippin’ Plummer. If you discount quarterback play, the Broncos are the best team in the West, and it’s not particularly close. Mike Shanahan did a phenomenal job of getting Plummer to “play within himself” last year (coachspeak for “don’t suck as much as usual”). Well, Plummer fell apart in a very winnable AFC Championship, and it looks like that’s carrying over to this season. Plummer absolutely killed the Broncos against the Rams, with three interceptions…and the Rams aren’t even that good on defense. It was a miracle that Denver’s defense held the Rams to 6 field goals.

Outlook: If Shanahan gets Plummer back to the 2005 pre-AFC Championship version, they win the division. As you can see, I’m betting against that.

Kansas City Chiefs
What I Like: Larry Johnson is the best running back in football and is single-handedly capable of putting this team on his shoulders. The defense is making gains, and has steadily been adding talent, with guys like Jared Allen, Derrick Johnson and Kendrell Bell. The corners are old, but still good. Tony Gonzalez remains a reliable, if suddenly underused, red zone target.

What I Don’t Like: Missouri is called the Show Me State. Well, until the Chiefs Show Me a good defense, I’m not buying all the talk. They remain crappy where it counts: up the middle. The loss of both starting OTs is obviously having an effect, and is forcing Gonzalez to stay in and block more, rather than playing to his strength: catching passes. The injury to Trent Green is a major problem; it sounds like he’ll be back before too long, but every week he’s out, they’re playing Damon Huard, which is a recipe for disaster. But more than anything else, the Chiefs have a major problem on the sidelines. His name is Herm Edwards. Allow me to digress for a moment: my buddy Lan is a huge Chiefs fan. He’s been excited with the Edwards hiring (though he wanted Al Saunders instead). I told him that Edwards is a lousy coach, and he challenged me to name 10 better coaches. I was barely halfway through the AFC, and he had already rejected my claim that Nick Saban, Marv Lewis and Jeff Fisher were all better coaches. At that point, I gave up; arguing with a wall would have been more effective. Here’s the point: Edwards is just good enough to give people hope…and thus stick around long enough to really screw things up. He’s a powerful speaker, he seems reasonably bright in interviews, his players love him and he’s had just enough success to look competent. Unfortunately, he’s a terrible, awful, putrid in-game tactician. Someone once said that Edwards is a great coach six days of the week, and lousy on the seventh. That’s a perfect description. Edwards was terribly overmatched in that Bengals game; the Chiefs got creamed at home in week one, despite having an entire summer to prepare for the Bengals. That doesn’t happen to well-coached teams.

Outlook: Way too many holes to seriously challenge for the playoffs; LJ can only do so much.

Oakland Raiders
What I Like: No team with Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan should be all that bad on offense. And the Raiders are making strides on defense; like the Chiefs, they’ve been adding some talent here and there. The offensive line should be pretty good; this could be the year Bob Gallery becomes the road grader they expected.

What I Don’t Like: Bill Simmons once proposed a scale of rating how shaky a team’s QB and coach were, on a scale of 1 to 10, with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick each being a 1. The theory was that if they added up to a 15 or higher, that team couldn’t possibly make the playoffs. The Raiders are at least an 18 on that scale. Aaron Brooks and Art Shell put together inspire plenty of confidence…in the opposition. The Raiders can also be put in the Chiefs’ class; the defense stinks until conclusively proven otherwise.

Outlook: Maybe they challenge for third if everything breaks right, but on paper, this is definitely the division’s worst team.

Playoffs:
NFC Teams and seeds: 1. Seattle, 2. Carolina, 3. NY Giants, 4. Chicago, 5. Tampa Bay, 6. Dallas. (Boy, do these picks look great one week later. Ugh.)

AFC Teams and seeds: 1. Pittsburgh, 2. Indianapolis, 3. New England, 4. San Diego, 5. Miami, 6. Cincinnati.

First round NFC Playoffs: NY Giants over Dallas, Chicago over Tampa Bay.
First round AFC Playoffs: New England over Cincinnati, Miami over San Diego.

Second round NFC Playoffs: Seattle over Chicago, NY Giants over Carolina.
Second round AFC Playoffs: Pittsburgh over Miami, Indianapolis over New England.

NFC Championship: Seattle over NY Giants.
AFC Championship: Indianapolis over Pittsburgh.

Super Bowl: Indianapolis 31 Seattle 24.