NFC Preview
You’ve probably read a few dozen NFL previews by now, so there’s not really much need for a great big intro. Because I’m still making up my mind about the AFC, let’s get this thing started with the NFC.
I will add this before getting started: for all the talk about how the AFC is so much better than the NFC, it seems to me that the gap has closed considerably. I still think the AFC is the better conference, of course, but there’s a pretty good case to be made that the NFC has the two best divisions in the NFL: the NFC East and NFC South. I could see any of the four NFC East teams taking that division, and in the South, you can make at least a plausible case that if a few things go right, New Orleans could challenge for the playoffs. The big difference in the conferences is not at the top, but in the middle; the AFC’s 8-8 teams look a lot better than the NFC’s 8-8 teams, if that makes sense. But the playoff teams from each conference should be pretty evenly matched. It’s not like Major League Baseball, where the Mets are the only NL team that would contend for the playoffs in the AL.
Without further ado, the NFC preview:
NFC East
Predicted order of finish and record:
1. New York (11-5), 2. Dallas (10-6), 3. Washington (9-7), 4. Philadelphia (7-9).
New York Giants
What I Like: This might be the best offense in the NFC; it’s almost certainly them or Seattle. I think Eli Manning is ready to make a huge leap this year, he’s got tremendous talent at the skill positions to work with, and a quality offensive line, and I love the connection he’s building with Jeremy Shockey, and how Shockey complements Plax Burress. Tiki Barber remains awesome, of course. The defense is also better than advertised and they’ve got the best pair of defensive ends in football, with Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Finally, it’s year three of the Tom Coughlin Regime, which means the players are still responding to his dictatorial style, and won’t turn on him for at least two more years.
What I Don’t Like: The secondary really doesn’t light my fire; they’ve got Sam Madison on the downslope of his fine career, and Corey Webster’s injuries last year hurt his development. I also think they’re banking on a lot from a pair of injury-prone LBs: Lavar Arrington and Antonio Pierce. If both those guys stay healthy, they should be excellent. But otherwise, they’re in trouble. They’re also very shaky at DT. Run defense as a whole may be a problem. The schedule is a killer, however, and could easily cost Big Blue that crucial first round bye in the playoffs.
Outlook: The present and future both look good in New York, and if the Giants’ run defense is even mediocre, they stand an excellent chance to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Dallas Cowboys
What I Like: Bill Parcells has his most talented defense in several years. The Cowboys should make big strides from last year’s unit and could easily be a top five defense. The line is nothing to write home about, but the back eight are stellar, and there’s sufficient depth. There’s also plenty of talent at the skill positions on offense, with Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Julius Jones, Marion Barber and Jason Witten all capable of big plays. Parcells, of course, remains one of the best coaches in NFL history, and is a guy you want on the sidelines in a tight game.
What I Don’t Like: The Owens situation is already becoming a problem (boy, I’m sure glad the Dolphins didn’t sign him like this hack writer was hoping), which shatters T.O.’s previous record for wearing out his welcome. While one suspects things will go better when the lights go on for real, this isn’t going nearly as well as many thought. And if Bill Parcells is a guy you want on the sidelines of a close game, so is Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe’s developed a penchant for game-killing interceptions of late. The offensive line also isn’t up to usual Cowboy standards, and that’s a problem exacerbated by Bledsoe’s lack of mobility. If Bledsoe gets hurt and is replaced by Tony Romo, there will be a big-time QB controversy, as Dallas fans (as fans often do) are solidly behind the backup.
Outlook: More than a few people like the Cowboys to win the East, and it’s understandable; they look a little better on paper than the Giants. But the Owens situation, and the potential for a QB controversy, coupled with the fact that the Cowboys aren’t great in the trenches on either side of the ball makes me put them in the second spot.
Washington Redskins
What I Like: Phenomenal defense, top to bottom. I like the addition of Andre Carter; the Redskins lacked that one really good pass rusher, and now they have him. There’s plenty of depth, as well. The team as a whole is very well-coached, and the defense in particular has benefited from Gregg Williams’ presence. The offense has quality at the tackle spots, and with Santana Moss now flanked by Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle-El, he’ll no longer be double or triple teamed all the time. Chris Cooley has also become a fine receiver. Clinton Portis, if healthy, is phenomenal, and if he’s out, TJ Duckett is more than capable of carrying the load.
What I Don’t Like: Mark Brunell is getting old and is very brittle. You’ve got to wonder whether he can last the season. Todd Collins is not what you’d like from a backup and while Jason Campbell should be ready to take the reins if need be, the Redskins would probably opt for Collins instead, under the theory that they want a veteran QB under center. Moreover, the offensive line is very shallow; if they lose a starter to injury, they’re in big trouble. Portis’ injury could be a problem as well.
Outlook: The Redskins are capable of winning the East and perhaps much more, but so much hinges on Brunell’s health, and that’s why I’m going with the Giants instead.
Philadelphia Eagles
What I Like: Donovan McNabb remains an elite quarterback and has succeeded with much less offensive talent than he has now. The tandem of Donte Stallworth and Reggie Brown could be a very intriguing pair of receivers. Brian Westbrook might actually be the team’s best pass catcher, and could be in line for a 1000-1000 season if everything goes right. The return to health of Correll Buckhalter is a nice bonus as well, as he’s the complement the team needs for Westbrook. The defense still features one of the best secondaries in football, and the addition of Darren Howard will definitely help the pass rush.
What I Don’t Like: Westbrook is the key to the offense, and has a hard time staying healthy. And while Brown and Stallworth have talent, they’ve proven little so far. The front seven and the offensive line, both long-time strengths for this team, are not what they used to be. Jevon Kearse is no longer the monster he was in Tennessee, and the trade of Mark Simoneau leaves the Eagles very thin at linebacker.
Outlook: Right now, the Eagles look like the weakest team in the NFC East, but they’re still dangerous, and could be dangerous if a few things go right.
NFC North
Predicted order of finish and record:
1. Chicago (9-7), 2. Minnesota (7-9), 3. Green Bay (6-10), 4. Detroit (5-11).
Chicago Bears
What I Like: Geography. Seriously, that’s the only reason this team wins the division. I feel like the Bears caught a ton of breaks last year, and in almost any other division, wouldn’t seriously threaten. The Bears’ defense is superb, of course, particularly if they can keep Mike Brown healthy. Brian Urlacher justifiably gets the lion’s share of credit, but Brown is a fantastic safety who serves as the glue for a very good secondary. The running game and offensive line are both respectable as well, whoever ends up carrying the ball between Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson.
What I Don’t Like: I’m not sure I understand the fascination this franchise seems to have with Rex Grossman. He’s in his fourth year, has played a total of 8 regular season games, and has a QB rating of 68.8. Brian Griese will win the job by week 6, either because Grossman gets hurt or plays poorly. The Bears have a very weak receiving corps; Muhsin Muhammad really should be a #2, and no one else looks ready to make an impact. Any way you slice it, this team will struggle to score points.
Outlook: The Bears do one thing extremely well: play defense. And that alone makes them better than the rest of the NFC North. In reality, they’d be a second or third place team in any other division in football, but they fattened up on the NFC North last year (5-1, 5-5 against everyone else), and should do so again and take the title.
Minnesota Vikings
What I Like: The Vikes should have a monster offensive line this season, with the addition of Steve Hutchinson flanking what was a pretty talented (if poorly coached) line. Chester Taylor may not be faster than the departed Michael Bennett was, but he definitely brings stability to the running game, and Mewelde Moore is a fine third down back. The defense has loads of talent, some of which may be ready to make a major leap this season, especially on the line, with Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James at end and the Williamses, Pat and Kevin, in the middle.
What I Don’t Like: It just seems like this is a case of the sum of the parts being greater than the whole, especially on defense. The Vikings have recent first round picks and Pro Bowlers all over the place, but can’t seem to put it together and become a quality defense. The wide receiving corps follows the same path: Troy Williamson, Travis Taylor and Marcus Robinson all have plenty of talent, but the results are questionable. I’m also far from sold on Brad Johnson, who looked washed up before last season. The season-ending injury to Chad Greenway was a major blow; they really could have used him there. Finally, Brad Childress’ constant bad-mouthing of Daunte Culpepper after his trade to Miami seems a sign of poor judgment.
Outlook: Though I like the Bears to win the division, I think the Vikings would be more dangerous in the playoffs, if that makes sense. If the Vikes are in the playoffs, it means all that talent has come together and Brad Childress has pried his head from his rear end.
Green Bay Packers
What I Like: They’ve got Brett Favre, and with Favre, it’s hard to ever truly count the Packers out of a game. They’ve also got better offensive personnel than they showed last year; any offense with Ahman Green and Donald Driver can’t be that bad. The defense should rush the passer well, with Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and the rising Aaron Kampman at end, plus the addition of AJ Hawk at LB to play next to the unheralded Nick Barnett. Finally, the Packers play a Charmin-soft schedule.
What I Don’t Like: They’ve got Brett Favre, and with Favre, it’s hard to ever truly count the Packers’ opponents out of a game. The roster is pretty much devoid of depth everywhere outside the skill positions. The loss of Ryan Longwell will hurt a lot more than the team seems to appreciate; Longwell’s skill at kicking in rotten weather might have been worth a win every other year. Kids and journeymen man the interior lines on both sides of the ball, and as we all know, winning football starts in the trenches.
Outlook: In such a weak division, the Packers can’t truly be counted out, and if they stay healthy, a run for the division title isn’t totally out of the question.
Detroit Lions
What I Like: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz is just the guy to get the most out of Detroit’s talented underachievers: Kevin Jones, and Roy and Mike Williams. Jon Kitna is a short-term improvement at QB, and Josh McCown could be the Lions’ long-term answer there. The offensive line is also better than most think, with Jeff Backus and Damien Woody on hand. The defense has some talent, and Shaun Rogers’ presence should help the development of guys like Shaun Cody and LBs Ernie Sims and Boss Bailey.
What I Don’t Like: Right now, apart from Rogers and maybe CB Dre Bly, there’s not an established, above-average player on defense. And Bly takes way too many chances in coverage to be rated as well has he often is. On the whole, the defense will probably be in the NFL’s bottom third. At the moment, Roy Williams is the only quality wide receiver on the roster; Mike Williams looks like a bust, even if it seems a bit premature to judge him. And even though Backus and Woody are good, and the other starters are at least serviceable, the offensive line has no depth to speak of.
Outlook: Too many lousy drafts have crippled the depth of this team, and that’s going to spell doom for the Lions.
NFC South
Predicted order of finish and record:
1. Carolina (11-5), 2. Tampa Bay (10-6), 3. Atlanta (7-9), 4. New Orleans (5-11).
Carolina Panthers
What I Like: The team is solid from top to bottom. Steve Smith is perhaps the NFL’s most dangerous receiver, and if Keyshawn Johnson checks his ego at the door, the Panthers could have a tremendous passing game, as Jake Delhomme is capable of lighting it up. The running game will be quality, whoever ends up carrying the ball. The Panthers also boast arguably the NFL’s best defensive line, with Julius Peppers, Mike Rucker, Kris Jenkins and Ma’ake Kemoeatu, and a very good secondary. The special teams are very good, and probably got even better with the addition of DeAngelo Williams. John Fox is one of the NFL’s best coaches.
What I Don’t Like: Johnson has screwed up a good thing before, and has always griped when he hasn’t gotten the ball enough. Delhomme’s connection with Smith means Key will seldom end up with more than 3 or 4 catches per game, and that may not be enough to keep him happy. The offensive line lacks depth, and while the team has depth at defensive tackle, the injury-prone Kris Jenkins could go down at any time.
Outlook: There’s a pretty convincing argument to be made that this is the NFC’s best team. Only a rough division schedule might keep the Panthers from home field throughout the NFC playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What I Like: Chris Simms is becoming a better QB every day, and with Cadillac Williams, Joey Galloway and the sure-to-improve Michael Clayton at wide receiver, he’s got plenty to work with. The defense remains a top unit, without a weakness in the starting 11. Few defenses can boast as many elite players as the Bucs can: Simeon Rice, Derrick Brooks, Shelton Quarles, Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly are all among the very best at their respective positions.
What I Don’t Like: What on earth did Jon Gruden do to tick off the NFL schedule maker? Tampa’s last eight games are against Carolina, Washington, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland and Seattle. And they visit the Giants two weeks before that murderous stretch begins. They’ll have to start extremely hot just to make the playoffs, let alone challenge for the division title. The special teams are lousy, save punter Josh Bidwell, and the offensive line is adequate at best. Simms looked dreadful in the playoffs last year, too, and one wonders if that will haunt him. A repeat of Michael Clayton’s 2005 season could really cripple the offense, given the lack of depth behind him and Galloway at receiver.
Outlook: On paper, the Bucs have enough to challenge for the Super Bowl if Simms continues to progress and Clayton returns to form. But there are too many little things that are a concern for this team to be considered a favorite.
Atlanta Falcons
What I Like: The addition of John Abraham gives the Falcons a tremendous pass-rushing defensive line; Abraham, Patrick Kerney and Rod Coleman can all get to the quarterback. Keith Brooking and DeAngelo Hall are also stars on defense. Michael Vick, of course, is the most gifted quarterback in the NFL, and probably NFL history, for that matter, and his mobility allows him to make something out of nothing on a lot of plays. Warrick Dunn remains a reliable running back and he and Alge Crumpler give Vick quality short-range passing targets. The team also has some downfield speed at wide receiver.
What I Don’t Like: I’ve never liked the idea of shoehorning Vick into the West Coast Offense, and I like his receivers in that system even less. Vick was frustrated last year, and if things don’t improve soon, the team may have a battle between its star player and head coach. The offensive line isn’t great, and suffers from a ridiculous lack of depth, as does the defensive line. The secondary, outside Hall and safety Chris Crocker, is a liability. The ancient Lawyer Milloy lines up at one safety spot, and rookie Jimmy Williams figures to start at corner opposite Hall.
Outlook: Like the Bucs, the Falcons have several elite players on defense. Unlike the Bucs, they don’t have the solid guys everywhere else to make the unit top-five material. Even if Vick makes strides with the West Coast Offense, I still think this team will struggle to score points consistently.
New Orleans Saints
What I Like: The Saints have an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions, with Joe Horn, Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush all threats to scorch a defense and Drew Brees is a good enough quarterback to make it all work. If the Saints can figure out how to keep Bush involved in the offense, and if Brees is healthy, the team will have no problem scoring points. Will Smith and Charles Grant are a very good pair of defensive ends, too.
What I Don’t Like: The Saints may have the worst back seven in football. Even with the addition of Mark Simoneau, their linebackers are terrible, and their secondary has been a travesty for years. Mike McKenzie has underachieved since leaving Green Bay, and absolutely must play back to his former level for the Saints to stop anyone through the air. I’m also not sure how this team will stop the run; they just aren’t that strong at DT. Brees’ health remains a concern, as he didn’t exactly set the world afire in preseason, and one wonders if Sean Payton is creative enough to ensure that Reggie Bush gets the touches he needs. The Saints also, despite winning all of 3 games last year, managed to somehow draw the league’s third toughest schedule.
Outlook: Look for the Saints to lose a lot of 35-28 games.
NFC West
Predicted order of finish and record:
1. Seattle (12-4), 2. St. Louis (7-9), 3.Arizona (6-10), 4. San Francisco (4-12).
Seattle Seahawks
What I Like: Everything. The ‘Hawks have an explosive offense with Matt Hasselbeck throwing to Darrell Jackson, Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram (and soon, maybe Deion Branch, too), and Shaun Alexander on the ground. The offensive line should be plenty good enough to make up for the loss of Steve Hutchinson. The defense features few standout performers, but has enough depth and quality to be a good group as a whole. And perhaps as a consolation prize for having to deal with some of the worst officiating in recent memory in the Super Bowl, Seattle managed to draw one of the league’s easiest schedules.
What I Don’t Like: Jackson’s health is a potential concern, obviously enough to the team that they’re looking at Branch, and Burleson looked great in 2004, but lost in 2005. So, there’s at least the potential for the receiving corps to go south in a hurry. The team’s reliance on the Julian Peterson signing to bolster the linebacking corps could backfire as well, given his injury history. The corner spot opposite Marcus Trufant may be a concern, with rookie Kelly Jennings and the so-so Kelly Herndon competing for a spot.
Outlook: There is no bigger lock in the NFL this year than the Seahawks in the NFC West. This team remains a serious threat to win the Super Bowl.
Arizona Cardinals
What I Like: Loads of skill position talent; there is no better receiver tandem in the NFL than Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. The addition of Edgerrin James will take lots of pressure off those two, and give Kurt Warner a short yardage passing option as well. The defensive line is better than you might think; Bertrand Berry and Chike Okeafor are a quality pair of ends, and Darnell Dockett and Kendrick Clancy aren’t bad in the middle. Adrian Wilson’s standout play at safety should ease the pressure on the corners. Neil Rackers and Scott Player are two of the best specialists in football.
What I Don’t Like: This might be the worst offensive line in football. It’s certainly in the bottom five. Having spent his whole career behind a top-10 line in Indianapolis, James may struggle at times. And having a QB as injury-prone as Warner behind this line is going to end badly at some point. Karlos Dansby is becoming a very good linebacker, but the rest of that group leaves much to be desired, and apart from Wilson, the secondary is a mish-mash of inexperienced, if talented players, and journeymen. I’ve also never been sold on Denny Green as a coach; his teams always seem just good enough to look impressive in defeat.
Outlook: New Orleans West; look for lots of 35-28 losses.
St. Louis Rams
What I Like: Mike Martz and the Greatest Show on Turf are gone, but there’s still plenty of talent on offense. Few teams wouldn’t trade their skill position personnel for Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Kevin Curtis. After years of searching for an adequate right tackle, it appears that Alex Barron is the quality bookend for Orlando Pace the team needs. As a result, the offensive line should be pretty good. The addition of Will Witherspoon, coupled with Pisa Tinoisamoa means the Rams have a pair of decent linebackers to build upon. DE Leonard Little provides a quality pass rush.
What I Don’t Like: The defense will be one of the worst in football. The secondary is poor, the defensive line can’t stop the run and depth is absent everywhere, and apart from Little, the team lacks a quality pass rusher. The Rams drafted a lot of quality players on defense, but it’s going to take time for them to come together. In the meantime, opponents will run the ball down their throats. The youth movement goes to the sidelines as well; Scott Linehan is a first-time head coach, and will make the mistakes that first-time coaches always do.
Outlook: If the defense comes along faster than expected, the Rams could make a run at the playoffs, but in reality, they’re probably a year or two away.
San Francisco 49ers
What I Like: The defense is coming along pretty well, which shouldn’t be a surprise, considering the success head coach Mike Nolan had with building defenses in Baltimore. There are no standouts, but it’s a reasonably good unit, especially if LB Manny Lawson develops quickly. You can do much worse than to have Derek Smith, Jeff Ulbrich and Brandon Moore as the inside LBs. Frank Gore has the ability to be a very good ball carrier, and the offensive line isn’t bad. Nolan’s philosophy of simply grabbing the best available player has led to two quality drafts in his two years so far.
What I Don’t Like: QB Alex Smith will show progress, but he’s got a long way to go, and looked dreadful last year. He doesn’t have much to throw to; I’ve never been a big Antonio Bryant fan, and TE Vernon Davis is a rookie who didn’t look great in preseason. The secondary needs some work, too; the Mike Rumph experiment failed, and now the Niners are looking at the over-the-hill Walt Harris as a starter, which isn’t a good thing.
Outlook: The Niners are getting better, and if Smith keeps progressing, they could make life difficult for someone at the end of the year. But for now, Niners fans will have to be content with the knowledge that it looks like Mike Nolan knows what he’s doing, and the rebuilding program is on track.
I will add this before getting started: for all the talk about how the AFC is so much better than the NFC, it seems to me that the gap has closed considerably. I still think the AFC is the better conference, of course, but there’s a pretty good case to be made that the NFC has the two best divisions in the NFL: the NFC East and NFC South. I could see any of the four NFC East teams taking that division, and in the South, you can make at least a plausible case that if a few things go right, New Orleans could challenge for the playoffs. The big difference in the conferences is not at the top, but in the middle; the AFC’s 8-8 teams look a lot better than the NFC’s 8-8 teams, if that makes sense. But the playoff teams from each conference should be pretty evenly matched. It’s not like Major League Baseball, where the Mets are the only NL team that would contend for the playoffs in the AL.
Without further ado, the NFC preview:
NFC East
Predicted order of finish and record:
1. New York (11-5), 2. Dallas (10-6), 3. Washington (9-7), 4. Philadelphia (7-9).
New York Giants
What I Like: This might be the best offense in the NFC; it’s almost certainly them or Seattle. I think Eli Manning is ready to make a huge leap this year, he’s got tremendous talent at the skill positions to work with, and a quality offensive line, and I love the connection he’s building with Jeremy Shockey, and how Shockey complements Plax Burress. Tiki Barber remains awesome, of course. The defense is also better than advertised and they’ve got the best pair of defensive ends in football, with Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Finally, it’s year three of the Tom Coughlin Regime, which means the players are still responding to his dictatorial style, and won’t turn on him for at least two more years.
What I Don’t Like: The secondary really doesn’t light my fire; they’ve got Sam Madison on the downslope of his fine career, and Corey Webster’s injuries last year hurt his development. I also think they’re banking on a lot from a pair of injury-prone LBs: Lavar Arrington and Antonio Pierce. If both those guys stay healthy, they should be excellent. But otherwise, they’re in trouble. They’re also very shaky at DT. Run defense as a whole may be a problem. The schedule is a killer, however, and could easily cost Big Blue that crucial first round bye in the playoffs.
Outlook: The present and future both look good in New York, and if the Giants’ run defense is even mediocre, they stand an excellent chance to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Dallas Cowboys
What I Like: Bill Parcells has his most talented defense in several years. The Cowboys should make big strides from last year’s unit and could easily be a top five defense. The line is nothing to write home about, but the back eight are stellar, and there’s sufficient depth. There’s also plenty of talent at the skill positions on offense, with Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Julius Jones, Marion Barber and Jason Witten all capable of big plays. Parcells, of course, remains one of the best coaches in NFL history, and is a guy you want on the sidelines in a tight game.
What I Don’t Like: The Owens situation is already becoming a problem (boy, I’m sure glad the Dolphins didn’t sign him like this hack writer was hoping), which shatters T.O.’s previous record for wearing out his welcome. While one suspects things will go better when the lights go on for real, this isn’t going nearly as well as many thought. And if Bill Parcells is a guy you want on the sidelines of a close game, so is Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe’s developed a penchant for game-killing interceptions of late. The offensive line also isn’t up to usual Cowboy standards, and that’s a problem exacerbated by Bledsoe’s lack of mobility. If Bledsoe gets hurt and is replaced by Tony Romo, there will be a big-time QB controversy, as Dallas fans (as fans often do) are solidly behind the backup.
Outlook: More than a few people like the Cowboys to win the East, and it’s understandable; they look a little better on paper than the Giants. But the Owens situation, and the potential for a QB controversy, coupled with the fact that the Cowboys aren’t great in the trenches on either side of the ball makes me put them in the second spot.
Washington Redskins
What I Like: Phenomenal defense, top to bottom. I like the addition of Andre Carter; the Redskins lacked that one really good pass rusher, and now they have him. There’s plenty of depth, as well. The team as a whole is very well-coached, and the defense in particular has benefited from Gregg Williams’ presence. The offense has quality at the tackle spots, and with Santana Moss now flanked by Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle-El, he’ll no longer be double or triple teamed all the time. Chris Cooley has also become a fine receiver. Clinton Portis, if healthy, is phenomenal, and if he’s out, TJ Duckett is more than capable of carrying the load.
What I Don’t Like: Mark Brunell is getting old and is very brittle. You’ve got to wonder whether he can last the season. Todd Collins is not what you’d like from a backup and while Jason Campbell should be ready to take the reins if need be, the Redskins would probably opt for Collins instead, under the theory that they want a veteran QB under center. Moreover, the offensive line is very shallow; if they lose a starter to injury, they’re in big trouble. Portis’ injury could be a problem as well.
Outlook: The Redskins are capable of winning the East and perhaps much more, but so much hinges on Brunell’s health, and that’s why I’m going with the Giants instead.
Philadelphia Eagles
What I Like: Donovan McNabb remains an elite quarterback and has succeeded with much less offensive talent than he has now. The tandem of Donte Stallworth and Reggie Brown could be a very intriguing pair of receivers. Brian Westbrook might actually be the team’s best pass catcher, and could be in line for a 1000-1000 season if everything goes right. The return to health of Correll Buckhalter is a nice bonus as well, as he’s the complement the team needs for Westbrook. The defense still features one of the best secondaries in football, and the addition of Darren Howard will definitely help the pass rush.
What I Don’t Like: Westbrook is the key to the offense, and has a hard time staying healthy. And while Brown and Stallworth have talent, they’ve proven little so far. The front seven and the offensive line, both long-time strengths for this team, are not what they used to be. Jevon Kearse is no longer the monster he was in Tennessee, and the trade of Mark Simoneau leaves the Eagles very thin at linebacker.
Outlook: Right now, the Eagles look like the weakest team in the NFC East, but they’re still dangerous, and could be dangerous if a few things go right.
NFC North
Predicted order of finish and record:
1. Chicago (9-7), 2. Minnesota (7-9), 3. Green Bay (6-10), 4. Detroit (5-11).
Chicago Bears
What I Like: Geography. Seriously, that’s the only reason this team wins the division. I feel like the Bears caught a ton of breaks last year, and in almost any other division, wouldn’t seriously threaten. The Bears’ defense is superb, of course, particularly if they can keep Mike Brown healthy. Brian Urlacher justifiably gets the lion’s share of credit, but Brown is a fantastic safety who serves as the glue for a very good secondary. The running game and offensive line are both respectable as well, whoever ends up carrying the ball between Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson.
What I Don’t Like: I’m not sure I understand the fascination this franchise seems to have with Rex Grossman. He’s in his fourth year, has played a total of 8 regular season games, and has a QB rating of 68.8. Brian Griese will win the job by week 6, either because Grossman gets hurt or plays poorly. The Bears have a very weak receiving corps; Muhsin Muhammad really should be a #2, and no one else looks ready to make an impact. Any way you slice it, this team will struggle to score points.
Outlook: The Bears do one thing extremely well: play defense. And that alone makes them better than the rest of the NFC North. In reality, they’d be a second or third place team in any other division in football, but they fattened up on the NFC North last year (5-1, 5-5 against everyone else), and should do so again and take the title.
Minnesota Vikings
What I Like: The Vikes should have a monster offensive line this season, with the addition of Steve Hutchinson flanking what was a pretty talented (if poorly coached) line. Chester Taylor may not be faster than the departed Michael Bennett was, but he definitely brings stability to the running game, and Mewelde Moore is a fine third down back. The defense has loads of talent, some of which may be ready to make a major leap this season, especially on the line, with Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James at end and the Williamses, Pat and Kevin, in the middle.
What I Don’t Like: It just seems like this is a case of the sum of the parts being greater than the whole, especially on defense. The Vikings have recent first round picks and Pro Bowlers all over the place, but can’t seem to put it together and become a quality defense. The wide receiving corps follows the same path: Troy Williamson, Travis Taylor and Marcus Robinson all have plenty of talent, but the results are questionable. I’m also far from sold on Brad Johnson, who looked washed up before last season. The season-ending injury to Chad Greenway was a major blow; they really could have used him there. Finally, Brad Childress’ constant bad-mouthing of Daunte Culpepper after his trade to Miami seems a sign of poor judgment.
Outlook: Though I like the Bears to win the division, I think the Vikings would be more dangerous in the playoffs, if that makes sense. If the Vikes are in the playoffs, it means all that talent has come together and Brad Childress has pried his head from his rear end.
Green Bay Packers
What I Like: They’ve got Brett Favre, and with Favre, it’s hard to ever truly count the Packers out of a game. They’ve also got better offensive personnel than they showed last year; any offense with Ahman Green and Donald Driver can’t be that bad. The defense should rush the passer well, with Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and the rising Aaron Kampman at end, plus the addition of AJ Hawk at LB to play next to the unheralded Nick Barnett. Finally, the Packers play a Charmin-soft schedule.
What I Don’t Like: They’ve got Brett Favre, and with Favre, it’s hard to ever truly count the Packers’ opponents out of a game. The roster is pretty much devoid of depth everywhere outside the skill positions. The loss of Ryan Longwell will hurt a lot more than the team seems to appreciate; Longwell’s skill at kicking in rotten weather might have been worth a win every other year. Kids and journeymen man the interior lines on both sides of the ball, and as we all know, winning football starts in the trenches.
Outlook: In such a weak division, the Packers can’t truly be counted out, and if they stay healthy, a run for the division title isn’t totally out of the question.
Detroit Lions
What I Like: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz is just the guy to get the most out of Detroit’s talented underachievers: Kevin Jones, and Roy and Mike Williams. Jon Kitna is a short-term improvement at QB, and Josh McCown could be the Lions’ long-term answer there. The offensive line is also better than most think, with Jeff Backus and Damien Woody on hand. The defense has some talent, and Shaun Rogers’ presence should help the development of guys like Shaun Cody and LBs Ernie Sims and Boss Bailey.
What I Don’t Like: Right now, apart from Rogers and maybe CB Dre Bly, there’s not an established, above-average player on defense. And Bly takes way too many chances in coverage to be rated as well has he often is. On the whole, the defense will probably be in the NFL’s bottom third. At the moment, Roy Williams is the only quality wide receiver on the roster; Mike Williams looks like a bust, even if it seems a bit premature to judge him. And even though Backus and Woody are good, and the other starters are at least serviceable, the offensive line has no depth to speak of.
Outlook: Too many lousy drafts have crippled the depth of this team, and that’s going to spell doom for the Lions.
NFC South
Predicted order of finish and record:
1. Carolina (11-5), 2. Tampa Bay (10-6), 3. Atlanta (7-9), 4. New Orleans (5-11).
Carolina Panthers
What I Like: The team is solid from top to bottom. Steve Smith is perhaps the NFL’s most dangerous receiver, and if Keyshawn Johnson checks his ego at the door, the Panthers could have a tremendous passing game, as Jake Delhomme is capable of lighting it up. The running game will be quality, whoever ends up carrying the ball. The Panthers also boast arguably the NFL’s best defensive line, with Julius Peppers, Mike Rucker, Kris Jenkins and Ma’ake Kemoeatu, and a very good secondary. The special teams are very good, and probably got even better with the addition of DeAngelo Williams. John Fox is one of the NFL’s best coaches.
What I Don’t Like: Johnson has screwed up a good thing before, and has always griped when he hasn’t gotten the ball enough. Delhomme’s connection with Smith means Key will seldom end up with more than 3 or 4 catches per game, and that may not be enough to keep him happy. The offensive line lacks depth, and while the team has depth at defensive tackle, the injury-prone Kris Jenkins could go down at any time.
Outlook: There’s a pretty convincing argument to be made that this is the NFC’s best team. Only a rough division schedule might keep the Panthers from home field throughout the NFC playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What I Like: Chris Simms is becoming a better QB every day, and with Cadillac Williams, Joey Galloway and the sure-to-improve Michael Clayton at wide receiver, he’s got plenty to work with. The defense remains a top unit, without a weakness in the starting 11. Few defenses can boast as many elite players as the Bucs can: Simeon Rice, Derrick Brooks, Shelton Quarles, Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly are all among the very best at their respective positions.
What I Don’t Like: What on earth did Jon Gruden do to tick off the NFL schedule maker? Tampa’s last eight games are against Carolina, Washington, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland and Seattle. And they visit the Giants two weeks before that murderous stretch begins. They’ll have to start extremely hot just to make the playoffs, let alone challenge for the division title. The special teams are lousy, save punter Josh Bidwell, and the offensive line is adequate at best. Simms looked dreadful in the playoffs last year, too, and one wonders if that will haunt him. A repeat of Michael Clayton’s 2005 season could really cripple the offense, given the lack of depth behind him and Galloway at receiver.
Outlook: On paper, the Bucs have enough to challenge for the Super Bowl if Simms continues to progress and Clayton returns to form. But there are too many little things that are a concern for this team to be considered a favorite.
Atlanta Falcons
What I Like: The addition of John Abraham gives the Falcons a tremendous pass-rushing defensive line; Abraham, Patrick Kerney and Rod Coleman can all get to the quarterback. Keith Brooking and DeAngelo Hall are also stars on defense. Michael Vick, of course, is the most gifted quarterback in the NFL, and probably NFL history, for that matter, and his mobility allows him to make something out of nothing on a lot of plays. Warrick Dunn remains a reliable running back and he and Alge Crumpler give Vick quality short-range passing targets. The team also has some downfield speed at wide receiver.
What I Don’t Like: I’ve never liked the idea of shoehorning Vick into the West Coast Offense, and I like his receivers in that system even less. Vick was frustrated last year, and if things don’t improve soon, the team may have a battle between its star player and head coach. The offensive line isn’t great, and suffers from a ridiculous lack of depth, as does the defensive line. The secondary, outside Hall and safety Chris Crocker, is a liability. The ancient Lawyer Milloy lines up at one safety spot, and rookie Jimmy Williams figures to start at corner opposite Hall.
Outlook: Like the Bucs, the Falcons have several elite players on defense. Unlike the Bucs, they don’t have the solid guys everywhere else to make the unit top-five material. Even if Vick makes strides with the West Coast Offense, I still think this team will struggle to score points consistently.
New Orleans Saints
What I Like: The Saints have an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions, with Joe Horn, Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush all threats to scorch a defense and Drew Brees is a good enough quarterback to make it all work. If the Saints can figure out how to keep Bush involved in the offense, and if Brees is healthy, the team will have no problem scoring points. Will Smith and Charles Grant are a very good pair of defensive ends, too.
What I Don’t Like: The Saints may have the worst back seven in football. Even with the addition of Mark Simoneau, their linebackers are terrible, and their secondary has been a travesty for years. Mike McKenzie has underachieved since leaving Green Bay, and absolutely must play back to his former level for the Saints to stop anyone through the air. I’m also not sure how this team will stop the run; they just aren’t that strong at DT. Brees’ health remains a concern, as he didn’t exactly set the world afire in preseason, and one wonders if Sean Payton is creative enough to ensure that Reggie Bush gets the touches he needs. The Saints also, despite winning all of 3 games last year, managed to somehow draw the league’s third toughest schedule.
Outlook: Look for the Saints to lose a lot of 35-28 games.
NFC West
Predicted order of finish and record:
1. Seattle (12-4), 2. St. Louis (7-9), 3.Arizona (6-10), 4. San Francisco (4-12).
Seattle Seahawks
What I Like: Everything. The ‘Hawks have an explosive offense with Matt Hasselbeck throwing to Darrell Jackson, Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram (and soon, maybe Deion Branch, too), and Shaun Alexander on the ground. The offensive line should be plenty good enough to make up for the loss of Steve Hutchinson. The defense features few standout performers, but has enough depth and quality to be a good group as a whole. And perhaps as a consolation prize for having to deal with some of the worst officiating in recent memory in the Super Bowl, Seattle managed to draw one of the league’s easiest schedules.
What I Don’t Like: Jackson’s health is a potential concern, obviously enough to the team that they’re looking at Branch, and Burleson looked great in 2004, but lost in 2005. So, there’s at least the potential for the receiving corps to go south in a hurry. The team’s reliance on the Julian Peterson signing to bolster the linebacking corps could backfire as well, given his injury history. The corner spot opposite Marcus Trufant may be a concern, with rookie Kelly Jennings and the so-so Kelly Herndon competing for a spot.
Outlook: There is no bigger lock in the NFL this year than the Seahawks in the NFC West. This team remains a serious threat to win the Super Bowl.
Arizona Cardinals
What I Like: Loads of skill position talent; there is no better receiver tandem in the NFL than Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. The addition of Edgerrin James will take lots of pressure off those two, and give Kurt Warner a short yardage passing option as well. The defensive line is better than you might think; Bertrand Berry and Chike Okeafor are a quality pair of ends, and Darnell Dockett and Kendrick Clancy aren’t bad in the middle. Adrian Wilson’s standout play at safety should ease the pressure on the corners. Neil Rackers and Scott Player are two of the best specialists in football.
What I Don’t Like: This might be the worst offensive line in football. It’s certainly in the bottom five. Having spent his whole career behind a top-10 line in Indianapolis, James may struggle at times. And having a QB as injury-prone as Warner behind this line is going to end badly at some point. Karlos Dansby is becoming a very good linebacker, but the rest of that group leaves much to be desired, and apart from Wilson, the secondary is a mish-mash of inexperienced, if talented players, and journeymen. I’ve also never been sold on Denny Green as a coach; his teams always seem just good enough to look impressive in defeat.
Outlook: New Orleans West; look for lots of 35-28 losses.
St. Louis Rams
What I Like: Mike Martz and the Greatest Show on Turf are gone, but there’s still plenty of talent on offense. Few teams wouldn’t trade their skill position personnel for Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Kevin Curtis. After years of searching for an adequate right tackle, it appears that Alex Barron is the quality bookend for Orlando Pace the team needs. As a result, the offensive line should be pretty good. The addition of Will Witherspoon, coupled with Pisa Tinoisamoa means the Rams have a pair of decent linebackers to build upon. DE Leonard Little provides a quality pass rush.
What I Don’t Like: The defense will be one of the worst in football. The secondary is poor, the defensive line can’t stop the run and depth is absent everywhere, and apart from Little, the team lacks a quality pass rusher. The Rams drafted a lot of quality players on defense, but it’s going to take time for them to come together. In the meantime, opponents will run the ball down their throats. The youth movement goes to the sidelines as well; Scott Linehan is a first-time head coach, and will make the mistakes that first-time coaches always do.
Outlook: If the defense comes along faster than expected, the Rams could make a run at the playoffs, but in reality, they’re probably a year or two away.
San Francisco 49ers
What I Like: The defense is coming along pretty well, which shouldn’t be a surprise, considering the success head coach Mike Nolan had with building defenses in Baltimore. There are no standouts, but it’s a reasonably good unit, especially if LB Manny Lawson develops quickly. You can do much worse than to have Derek Smith, Jeff Ulbrich and Brandon Moore as the inside LBs. Frank Gore has the ability to be a very good ball carrier, and the offensive line isn’t bad. Nolan’s philosophy of simply grabbing the best available player has led to two quality drafts in his two years so far.
What I Don’t Like: QB Alex Smith will show progress, but he’s got a long way to go, and looked dreadful last year. He doesn’t have much to throw to; I’ve never been a big Antonio Bryant fan, and TE Vernon Davis is a rookie who didn’t look great in preseason. The secondary needs some work, too; the Mike Rumph experiment failed, and now the Niners are looking at the over-the-hill Walt Harris as a starter, which isn’t a good thing.
Outlook: The Niners are getting better, and if Smith keeps progressing, they could make life difficult for someone at the end of the year. But for now, Niners fans will have to be content with the knowledge that it looks like Mike Nolan knows what he’s doing, and the rebuilding program is on track.
posted by Phunwin at 5:33 PM
1 Comments:
Nice summary.
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