The Pedro Fallout
Pedro is done for the year.
The optimist will say that the Mets have pretty much been without Pedro for half the season, and been just fine. And in fact, the way he's pitched when injured, he would have been more of a liability than anything.
I, unfortunately, am not an optimist. I am worried about the Mets in the postseason, and think the Yankees will end up with World Series title #25. The AL has gotten weaker in the last couple weeks; Detroit suddenly doesn't look like all that, Minnesota doesn't have Liriano, and Billy Beane's shit still don't work in the playoffs.
The Mets' one genuine advantage over the Yanks was pitching; the Yankees are probably the only team that can boast a better lineup than the Mets. Now, that advantage has been eliminated. I am unbelievably pissed that they didn't go out and get Zito at the deadline. I was pissed at the time, and now, I'm super-pissed. Think "Eddie (bleep)in' Moore" pissed.
Now, Steve Trachsel (a near-lock to get rechristened "Steve (bleep)in' Trachsel" in the playoffs) will be in the rotation when he should have been an emergency starter or long reliever. Instead of a perfectly acceptable rotation of Zito, Glavine, Hernandez and Maine, it's Glavine, Hernandez, Maine, Trachsel, which would probably give the Mets the worst starting rotation of the 8 playoff teams.
None of those current playoff starters have a fastball worth the name and make their living on the corners and off the plate. That may be fine against free-swinging, mediocre lineups, but in the playoffs, you're facing the best lineups baseball has to offer, and so hitters will be more disciplined. This is a point made very astutely by Orel Hershiser, who knows a couple things about pitching in the playoffs. The Yankees, with their patient, disciplined lineup, would absolutely kill the Mets pitching staff as it stands. Honestly, I would feel better with Oliver Perez in the rotation than Trachsel. That sounds crazy, but at least Perez gives the Mets a different look, with his electric, if sometimes eccentric, fastball and seems to be on the rebound since he started working with Rick Peterson. His ERA for August, with 4 starts, was 4.74, and he had a very nice 28/9 K/BB ratio in 24.2 IP. That won't happen, of course, because Willie Randolph loves him some Proven Veterans.
At this point, the game plan has to be to pray for 6 solid innings, and then the bullpen takes over. But, that 'pen is going to get worn down if the Mets play many extra inning games, and extra frames always happen in the postseason. I still have nightmares about Bobby Valentine trotting out Armando Benitez in the 1999 NLCS. Benitez takes much of the blame for that infamous Game 6, but in truth, he was completely out of gas from having been used so much.
The only saving grace is that the Kris Benson deal worked out better than anyone could have hoped. Well, anyone except me; I said from the start that I thought John Maine, not Jorge Julio (who was soon moved for El Duque), was the key to the deal. The Mets effectively dealt Benson for two superior starters, Hernandez and Maine, who cost much less.
I still think the Mets are the class of the NL, even without Pedro, but that's more a statement on the weakness of the rest of the NL than anything else. And if they run into the suddenly-hot Houston Astros, who boast an Oswalt-Clemens-Pettitte trio, they may be in trouble. But at least that won't be in round 1; it looks like the Mets will get the wild card in the first round, since the Phillies are doing their usual fade.
The optimist will say that the Mets have pretty much been without Pedro for half the season, and been just fine. And in fact, the way he's pitched when injured, he would have been more of a liability than anything.
I, unfortunately, am not an optimist. I am worried about the Mets in the postseason, and think the Yankees will end up with World Series title #25. The AL has gotten weaker in the last couple weeks; Detroit suddenly doesn't look like all that, Minnesota doesn't have Liriano, and Billy Beane's shit still don't work in the playoffs.
The Mets' one genuine advantage over the Yanks was pitching; the Yankees are probably the only team that can boast a better lineup than the Mets. Now, that advantage has been eliminated. I am unbelievably pissed that they didn't go out and get Zito at the deadline. I was pissed at the time, and now, I'm super-pissed. Think "Eddie (bleep)in' Moore" pissed.
Now, Steve Trachsel (a near-lock to get rechristened "Steve (bleep)in' Trachsel" in the playoffs) will be in the rotation when he should have been an emergency starter or long reliever. Instead of a perfectly acceptable rotation of Zito, Glavine, Hernandez and Maine, it's Glavine, Hernandez, Maine, Trachsel, which would probably give the Mets the worst starting rotation of the 8 playoff teams.
None of those current playoff starters have a fastball worth the name and make their living on the corners and off the plate. That may be fine against free-swinging, mediocre lineups, but in the playoffs, you're facing the best lineups baseball has to offer, and so hitters will be more disciplined. This is a point made very astutely by Orel Hershiser, who knows a couple things about pitching in the playoffs. The Yankees, with their patient, disciplined lineup, would absolutely kill the Mets pitching staff as it stands. Honestly, I would feel better with Oliver Perez in the rotation than Trachsel. That sounds crazy, but at least Perez gives the Mets a different look, with his electric, if sometimes eccentric, fastball and seems to be on the rebound since he started working with Rick Peterson. His ERA for August, with 4 starts, was 4.74, and he had a very nice 28/9 K/BB ratio in 24.2 IP. That won't happen, of course, because Willie Randolph loves him some Proven Veterans.
At this point, the game plan has to be to pray for 6 solid innings, and then the bullpen takes over. But, that 'pen is going to get worn down if the Mets play many extra inning games, and extra frames always happen in the postseason. I still have nightmares about Bobby Valentine trotting out Armando Benitez in the 1999 NLCS. Benitez takes much of the blame for that infamous Game 6, but in truth, he was completely out of gas from having been used so much.
The only saving grace is that the Kris Benson deal worked out better than anyone could have hoped. Well, anyone except me; I said from the start that I thought John Maine, not Jorge Julio (who was soon moved for El Duque), was the key to the deal. The Mets effectively dealt Benson for two superior starters, Hernandez and Maine, who cost much less.
I still think the Mets are the class of the NL, even without Pedro, but that's more a statement on the weakness of the rest of the NL than anything else. And if they run into the suddenly-hot Houston Astros, who boast an Oswalt-Clemens-Pettitte trio, they may be in trouble. But at least that won't be in round 1; it looks like the Mets will get the wild card in the first round, since the Phillies are doing their usual fade.
posted by Phunwin at 10:01 AM
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